Active Management in Action: Outperforming Buy & Hold with Smart Market Moves
When it comes to investing, most traditional strategies follow a familiar playbook: buy quality stocks, hold them long-term, and wait out market fluctuations. But what if you could do better? What if there was a smarter way to grow your wealth. Not by reacting, but by actively navigating the markets?
At Confluent, we believe the answer lies in active portfolio management. By strategically entering and exiting positions based on real-time market behavior, deep research, and risk-adjusted opportunities, investors can create more opportunities for profits by timing the market.
Let’s take a look at 3 back tested case studies with 3 different notable stocks: Apple (AAPL), NVIDIA (NVDA), and ExxonMobil (XOM). with this data we will see how an active strategy compares to the conventional “buy & hold” approach:
Case 1: Apple Inc. (AAPL)
- Entry Date: July 31, 2024
- Exit Date: October 31, 2024
- Entry Price: $221.33
- Exit Price: $225.41
- Stock Price as of April 12, 2025: $198.15
- Confluent Active Strategy Return: +1.84%
- Buy & Hold Return: –10.47%
The strategy:
While “buy & hold” would continue to hold Apple through a volatile period, our active strategy would have identified early signs of weakness in the stock and exited with a small gain before the downturn and then picked strong opportunities to buy back in at a later time.
The result:
A positive return for our the active strategy, while the passive strategy saw over 10% loss.
Case 2: NVIDIA (NVDA)
- Entry Date: January 31, 2023
- Exit Date: October 31, 2024
- Entry Price: $19.53
- Exit Price: $132.74
- Stock Price as of April 12, 2025: $110.93
- Confluent Active Strategy Return: +579.93%
- Buy & hold Return: +468.22%
The strategy:
The active management model recognized NVIDIA’s breakout potential early and would have entered well before the rally, and exited near the top. The model did not get greedy and would have locked in profits while other strategies waited.
The result:
The active management approach captured nearly 112% more upside than the passive approach.
Case 3: ExxonMobil (XOM)
- Entry Date: April 30, 2024
- Exit Date: June 30, 2024
- Entry Price: $114.40
- Exit Price: $112.26
- Stock Price as of April 12, 2025: $103.14
- Confluent Active Strategy Return: –1.87%
- Buy & Hold Return: –9.84%
The strategy:
The active approach showed its ability to quickly adjust to losing situations when testing this case. As market pressures hit the energy sector, our signals indicated to exit quickly to preserve capital.
The result:
The active management approach strategically minimized losses, exiting early while the broader market continued downward.
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What Is the Confluent Strategy?
The Confluent Strategy is built on the belief that markets are not static, and your investments shouldn’t be either. While traditional asset managers passively allocate portfolios based on historical averages and index benchmarks, we go further:
Active Portfolio Management: We constantly monitor economic trends, stock fundamentals, technical indicators, and global signals to make real-time decisions.
Principal Protection: We prioritize safeguarding your capital first. Gains are great—but preserving what you’ve earned is critical.
Personalized Approach: Every investor is unique. Our team tailors your portfolio based on your risk profile, financial goals, and market conditions.
Strategic Stock Selection: We don’t just buy big names. We analyze where value, growth, or opportunity truly lies and enter at optimal times.
Exit Discipline: One of the most overlooked aspects of investing. Knowing when to get out is just as important as knowing when to get in.
Why This Matters
Many investors accept average returns because they think that’s all the market offers. But when you manage risk actively and stay ahead of sentiment shifts, you can do more than just ride the wave, you can navigate it.
The Bottom Line:
You shouldn’t have to settle for 8–10% returns when the potential for 15–20% (or more) exists with smart decision-making. You also shouldn’t have to watch your portfolio shrink during market downturns without a strategy in place to respond.
Confluent Asset Management is here to change that narrative. Whether you’ve built wealth over time, inherited it, or are preparing for retirement, we offer you a personalized CFO experience with real strategy, not guesswork.
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Disclaimer:
This narrative and the performance figures are purely hypothetical and for illustration only. They come from model simulations, not actual client accounts. The example assumes perfect execution and ignores real-world factors (like fees, taxes, and market liquidity). Confluent Asset Management presents this story to educate – it is not a promise of future returns. All investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Past performance, even hypothetical, is no guarantee of future results. Always review the full disclosures and consider your personal financial situation before making any investment decisions.
