How Much of The Market Does AI Impact?

The AI market and its rapid expansion

The AI sector is growing at breakneck speed. According to a recent forecast, the global AI market (including hardware, software, services, etc.) is estimated to reach about $757.6 billion in 2025 with an expected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of roughly 19.2% over the period from 2025 to 2034. The AI software component is even more dynamic, with many observers pointing to multiyear growth at rates exceeding 30% in segments like generative AI and AI infrastructure.  

Because AI is both a product sector (selling AI solutions) and an enabling technology (infusing value into non-AI industries), its direct growth is only the lower bound of its market impact. 

AI as a possible growth multiplier across industries

Beyond the “pure” AI market, a more interesting question is how much of overall economic and market growth in 2025 is driven by AI adoption in traditional industries (finance, manufacturing, healthcare, retail, etc.). 

  • In a McKinsey survey, 78% of organizations reported using AI in at least one business function by 2024, up from 55 % the prior year.  
  • That same survey found that AI adoption tends to lead to productivity gains (cost reductions, incremental revenue) within the units deploying it, though at the time of reporting, many respondents still noted that the gains had not yet scaled to enterprise-wide profit levels. 
  • Bain’s 2025 Technology Report argues that leading firms deploying AI are seeing EBITDA improvements in the 10–25% range but the actual results are yet to be determined. 
  • PwC’s “Global AI Jobs Barometer” claims that industries more exposed to AI have seen 3× higher growth in revenue per worker compared with less-exposed industries. However, the lack of long-term data leaves results without a significant sample size to solidify the claim.  
  • On the global trade front, the World Trade Organization recently noted that in 2025, AI-related products such as semiconductors, servers, and telecom equipment accounted for 42% of global goods trade growth, despite making up only about 15% of total trade volume. That suggests a potentially disproportionate growth share for AI hardware and infrastructure.  

 

From these reports, you could infer that AI’s contribution to aggregate market growth is more than just the “AI sector”. AI has a path to be a force multiplier in nearly every modern industry if indicators come true. 

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What is AI’s market share?

Putting a precise number on AI’s share is challenging and speculative, but we can sketch a plausible range, combining direct and indirect effects. 

Combined, a conservative estimate might be that 10% to 20% of overall global market growth (or GDP growth) in 2025 is being driven by AI and AI-related firms (direct + spillover effects). In more aggressive or high-adoption markets (U.S., China, other leading tech economies), the share may be higher, closer to 30%. 

For sectors like cloud computing, enterprise software, semiconductors, telecom equipment, AI’s role likely hits a much higher share of incremental growth, because these sectors are more directly leveraged to AI infrastructure and service demand. 

Risks and caveats

Lag in financial impact

Though many companies adopt AI, the path from pilot to full-scale financial impact is uneven. Some surveys report that over 80% of organizations still do not see a material impact on enterprise-level profits from AI investments.

Valuation versus realized value

Some of the growth in market capitalization for AI-related companies reflects investor expectations and hype more than realized earnings.

Saturation and diminishing returns

As AI adoption becomes more pervasive, the incremental gains may plateau as early adopters enjoy the biggest boosts; while later adopters could find diminishing returns.

Macroeconomic headwinds

Inflation, supply chain constraints, regulatory risks, and energy costs pose systemic risks to growth that can impact AI moving forward. 

Conclusion

While we can’t pinpoint an exact percentage with full confidence, the weight of evidence suggests that AI and AI-related companies are responsible for a meaningful share of market growth in 2025, with a moderate overall share of the market, but a much higher share in tech-adjacent sectors. AI is no longer a fringe growth driver; it’s now a central engine of innovation, productivity, and capital flows. Whether that is an overall positive for the economy or not is yet to be seen, but we will be here to track whatever comes next. 

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Disclaimer

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References

Precedence Research: https://www.precedenceresearch.com/artificial-intelligence-market

Sequencer AI: https://www.sequencr.ai/insights/key-generative-ai-statistics-and-trends-for-2025

Mckinsey: https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/quantumblack/our-insights/the-state-of-ai

Bain & Company: https://www.bain.com/insights/topics/technology-report

PWC: https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/issues/artificial-intelligence/ai-jobs-barometer.html

AP News: https://apnews.com/article/wto-trade-merchandise-goods-growth-007100c3d1010f83fbc925735bd6ae87

Cornell University: https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.10590